Emmanuel Macron took a gamble in calling a snap parliamentary vote following the far-right National Rally’s outperformance in European elections. His gambit was that the French may well have protested when voting in the EU but would vote more moderately for the National Assembly — thus stalling the rise of Marine Le Pen, France’s perpetual presidential bridesmaid.

Macron, to the surprise of many, may have been right. Rather than the National Rally (RN) winning the most votes, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition mobilised and took the largest share of votes (with 182 seats), assisted by a tactical deal with Macron’s centrist Ensemble (168 seats) to beat out RN’s 143.

French connection

The results mirror trends in much of the Western world.

Crudely put, the establishment voted for Macron. Educated cosmopolitans and migrants, especially in larger cities, voted left. People from rural areas and left-behind towns voted right — and in much higher numbers than the allocation of seats suggests.

In many ways, it’s a classic story of globalisation and its discontents. Those who have benefited voted for the status quo. Those who felt left out voted for radical change—whether on the left or the right.

France has undergone an economic transformation in Paris, but many in la France profonde of the provinces and small communes struggle to make ends meet. Inequality is palpable. And people are dissatisfied with political elites, with Macron representing this class par excellence.

As Alexis de Tocqueville wrote centuries ago: “the French want no-one to be their superior.” And so, like a tall poppy in Flanders, they have cut Macron down, albeit at the ballot box, not with a guillotine.

Like those in the UK who voted for Brexit, or the US wishing to “Make America Great Again”, a growing number of French feel their country has lost its way, requiring more attention be paid to the “forgotten” people and reinvigorating a sense of national pride.

Macron went about this in his own imperious way. But more than wanting a larger global presence, leadership in Europe and a muscular, even if largely rhetorical, approach to Russia, most simply wanted to be heard and to have living standards improved.

Frenemies within

Now, with a hung parliament, Macron will not face the classic “cohabitation” problem of predecessors like Jacques Chirac — that is, a president ruling with a government from another party — but the even more thorny challenge of having to live with not one, but two, hostile parties whose bases have wildly different worldviews, only united only in their dislike for the president.

The most talked about option to avoid complete gridlock — various coalitions between the leaders of the socialists and the Macron’s centrists — will likely fail in the short term.

The parties lack a common program, shared responsibility and trust. And while the most logical option would be for Macron’s Ensemble party to lead a coalition, both the left and the right parties were elected on an anti-incumbency platform, making a “resurrected Macronism” dead on arrival.

More likely is that in by mid-next year Macron will have appointed a consensual figure to lead a technocratic minority government largely devoid of ideology, and avoiding the more extreme positions of both left and right.

Carrying the flame

But in the meantime, there will be turbulence. Parliament will reconvene in September when, in all likelihood, the NLP will fail to form a government. By October, the liberal Republicans, which gained only a small number of seats, will form a government to manage essential and short-term budgetary questions. But the ultimate outcome — a Republican party prime minister leading a technocratic government — will only come about by mid 2025 after months of horse trading.

And the risk of course is that a messy compromise, even if competently administered, will deepen antipathy, setting the scene for an even more consequential showdown at the next election. And this may not just deliver an RN majority in the legislature, but perhaps Marine Le Pen’s long-aspired goal as France’s first female president.

In the meantime, and as thoughts slowly turn to the Paris Olympics and the long European summer to follow, the weekend’s result won’t necessarily be a bad outcome for France’s economy or democracy.

Compromise between different viewpoints and working across the aisle is exactly what parliaments are designed for. Democracy always involves a trade-off between representativeness and effectiveness. Bonne chance.

Damien Bruckard is CEO of Geopolitical Strategy in Sydney and the daily risk briefing geopoliticaldispatch.com. Clément Lamy is CEO of LB Advisory, a public policy advisory practice in Paris.

DECEMBER 2024

As the urgency of environmental challenges reaches an unprecedented peak, one might pause to ask: do COPs still matter? As the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) just ended in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, now is the perfect time to reflect on the significance of these global gatherings and their role in shaping our planet's future.

2024 marks a historic convergence in environmental diplomacy, with the occurrence of three COPs in succession, each addressing one of the Rio Conventions established at the 1992 Earth Summit. These conventions focus on climate change (the United Nations Convention for Combatting Climate Change, or UNFCCC), biodiversity (the convention on Biological Diversity or CBD), and desertification (the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification or UNCCD). The succession of COPs in 2024 underscores their interdependence. Tackling one issue without addressing the others is a short-sighted approach, akin to fixing a leak while ignoring the flood.

For many years, critics have argued that COPs were detached from reality – idealistic negotiations delivering little beyond declarations. They may not be entirely wrong. The distance from local realities is sometimes undeniable, and frustration with slow progress is justified. But dismissing COPs outright is to ignore their unique value.

COPs are among the few spaces where every country, regardless of size or power, has an equal voice (and vote). They amplify diverse perspectives, driving more inclusive solutions, and they serve as bridges between science and policy. For example, findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have repeatedly informed negotiations and global strategies. Commitments made at COPs are often the necessary first step toward action, unlocking financing and laying the groundwork for tangible projects. COPs also set global targets that enable accountability, facilitate knowledge exchange, and repeatedly amplify the urgency of addressing environmental crises. While imperfect, they remain indispensable frameworks for progress at both global and national levels.

More than that, history provides compelling evidence of the tangible results COPs have produced. The Paris Agreement (COP21) gave the world a unifying goal: limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While achieving this target is increasingly uncertain[1], it created a shared ambition that continues to guide climate action. The Loss and Damage Fund, initiated at COP27 and operationalized with $700 million in pledges at COP28[2], represents a watershed moment for climate justice. On land, COP12 of the UNCCD(2015) launched Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) targets setting program, with 127 countries having voluntarily set targets to restore degraded land by 2030[3]. A few weeks ago, the agreement on the "Cali Fund" marked a precedent for benefit-sharing in biodiversity conservation, while at Baku for COP29, developed nations agreed to mobilize at least $300 billion annually by 2035 for climate finance directed towards developing countries. Some outcomes may have fallen short of expectations, but they remain vital drivers of tangible progress.

UNCCD COP16 is a milestone in its own right—the largest and most inclusive meeting in the Convention’s history. Key topics include accelerating land restoration by 2030, enhancing drought resilience, reinforcing the links between land, climate, and biodiversity, and strengthening women’s land rights. In two days, an unprecedented UDS12bn were committed to the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership, aimed at supporting least developed countries in enhancing drought resilience through concrete projects. Importantly, COP16 has expanded its scope beyond government representatives, actively engaging civil society and the private sector. Saudi Arabia’s innovative Green Zone, the largest in COP history, exemplifies how diverse collaborations can enhance outcomes. By fostering broader participation, COP16 may well set a precedent for the inclusivity and effectiveness of future conferences.

Beyond the headlines, COPs also serve as catalysts for broader change. They influence national policies, inspire private sector commitments, and shape public narratives around environmental responsibility. For example, the visibility of COPs has amplified youth-led movements like Fridays for Future and spurred businesses to align with global sustainability goals. These ripple effects demonstrate the enduring relevance of COPs in mobilizing collective action.

While COPs are not a panacea, they remain indispensable in our collective fight against environmental degradation. As UNCCD COP16 demonstrates, these gatherings are evolving to become more inclusive and action-oriented, paving the way for more effective global environmental governance. But for COPs to deliver on their promise, countries must approach them with ambition, set higher standards for themselves, and ensure that commitments translate into action. Governments, civil society, and the private sector all have roles to play in this broader fight.

Ultimately, the true significance of COPs lies not in the absence of perfect solutions but in the platforms they provide for building consensus, driving accountability, and inspiring action. No, you won’t see heads of state planting trees or assembling clean energy vehicles on COP sites. What you will see are dialogues, commitments, and collaborations—essential elements of environmental action that we cannot afford to overlook. That is why COPs still matter.

[1]https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024

[2]https://www.wri.org/insights/cop28-outcomes-next-steps

[3]https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/inline-files/127%20countries_list_LDN%20TSP_for%20web.pdf

Foreword

The past year has been one of gradual recovery and stabilization for many Sub-Saharan African economies, with a moderation of inflationary pressures, a stabilization of public debt ratios, and a cautious return to international capital markets. This progress, while encouraging, has been hard-won and remains fragile.

Looking ahead, a modest acceleration in economic growth is forecasted across the region. This growth, however, masks significant disparities between countries and sectors. Resource-rich nations are likely to benefit from ongoing global demand for critical minerals, while non-resource-intensive economies continue to demonstrate resilience through diversification efforts.

Monetary policy across the region is expected to take a more nuanced approach in 2025. We foresee a divergence in strategies, with some central banks maintaining a cautious stance to anchor inflation expectations, while others may have room to ease policy to support economic recovery. This balancing act will be crucial in fostering sustainable growth without compromising price stability.

Currency markets are likely to remain a focal point for policymakers and investors alike. While greater stability for some of the region's major currencies is expected, others may face continued depreciation pressures. The management of foreign exchange reserves and the potential adoption of innovative payment systems will be critical in navigating these challenges.

Debt sustainability remains a pressing concern for many countries in the region. The high cost of servicing external debt continues to constrain fiscal space, limiting the ability to invest in critical infrastructure and social programs. Creative solutions and international cooperation will be essential in addressing this issue.

Overall, the monetary and currency landscape of 2025 is expected to be characterized by strategic adaptation, resilience, and innovation. This report provides a country-oriented analysis, with specific insights dedicated to investors, policymakers, and business leaders operating in the region. It is our hope that it will contribute to support decision-making on these specific opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Link to the French version: https://www.jean-jaures.org/publication/titans-technologiques-bouleversements-numeriques-erosion-democratique-un-scenario-pour-les-midterms-de-2026-aux-etats-unis/

The scenario described in this paper is entirely speculative, drawing inspiration from real-world trends and tensions. It proposes potential or plausible political developments, economic consequences, and social reactions based on historical precedents, current trends, and available data. Through this exercise, we notably examine how complex interactions between political figures, corporate leaders, and technological advancements might shape future societal landscapes.

In this scenario, the collision between the Trump administration, Elon Musk’s expanding influence through his dual federal-corporate roles, and the tech industry’s political realignment is triggering a multidimensional crisis with global ramifications. This scenario unfolds across four phases, destabilizing U.S. governance, fracturing international alliances, and redefining corporate-political power dynamics. Key developments include Musk’s disruptive federal reforms at DOGE, escalating transatlantic trade wars over digital tariffs, and the controversial $500bn Stargate AI project. Concurrently, Trump’s semiconductor tariffs provoke supply chain collapses and domestic unrest, while Musk’s unauthorized diplomacy with EU far-right leaders strains NATO cohesion. By early 2026, these forces culminate in economic contraction, institutional erosion, and a pivotal midterm election that reshapes America’s political landscape.

PHASE 1: EARLY 2025 - Ideological alignment and systemic strains

Federal bureaucracy dismantling and conflict-of-interest crises

Musk’s January 2025 appointment as head of DOGE grants him authority to eliminate 30% of the federal workforce within six months, triggering immediate backlash from career officials and moderate Republicans. While the Trump administration publicly praises Musk’s “wartime CEO” tactics, internal White House communications reveal concerns over his simultaneous leadership of Tesla and SpaceX -companies holding $28bn in active federal contracts. By April 2025, 18 state attorneys general launch investigations into potential conflicts of interest, particularly regarding Musk’s directive to replace NASA’s legacy contractors with SpaceX infrastructure. This move sparks legal challenges under federal procurement laws, with government watchdog groups arguing that Musk’s dual roles violate 18 U.S.C. § 208 restrictions on private financial interests influencing public duties.

Digital trade wars and EU relations deterioration

The Trump administration’s February 2025 memorandum imposes 50% tariffs on EU digital services taxes, targeting several EU countries for what it terms “extortion of American tech giants”. The EU retaliates using its Anti-Coercion Instrument, levying 15% tariffs on U.S. cloud services and delaying approval of Amazon Web Services’ new data centers in Frankfurt and Milan. Microsoft reports a $2.1bn loss in European cloud revenue by Q2 2025, while AWS postpones three planned EU data center projects indefinitely. Musk exacerbates tensions by publicly endorsing far-right parties during European Parliament election campaigns, prompting a formal censure resolution from the EU legislature accusing him of “private-sector interference in democratic processes”. These developments occur alongside stalled negotiations for the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council.

PHASE 2: MID-2025 - Institutional breakdowns and global realignments

AI governance schism and the Stargate controversy

The $500bn Stargate AI infrastructure project -announced in January 2025 as a public-private partnership- becomes a flashpoint for regulatory and ideological conflict. Musk bypasses the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to implement accelerated AI safety protocols, drawing scrutiny from Federal Trade Commission Chair L. Khan, who initiates an antitrust review of the project’s exclusive contracts. Simultaneously, the EU enforces Article 15 of its AI Act, freezing U.S. companies’ access to EU data pools until compliance with transparency requirements is verified. This creates a bifurcated AI governance landscape: American systems prioritize rapid deployment under Musk’s “innovation-first” framework, while European models enforce strict ethical guardrails, fragmenting global tech standards.

Semiconductor tariffs and domestic economic fallout

President Trump’s June 2025 executive order imposes 60% tariffs on Chinese semiconductors, paralyzing U.S. tech manufacturing within weeks. Nvidia reports a 22% quarterly revenue drop as its data center GPU shipments stall, while Apple delays iPhone 17 production due to TSMC supply chain disruptions. By August 2025, protests erupt at semiconductor fabrication plants in Arizona and Texas, where 14,000 workers face layoffs. Musk’s X platform amplifies attacks against 34 Republican legislators opposing the tariffs, with pro-Trump PACs spending $47 million on primary challenges against what they label “anti-tariff traitors”. This intra-party conflict peaks when M. McConnell (R-KY) publicly warns that the tariffs risk “permanently ceding AI leadership to Beijing,” signaling growing GOP fissures.

Shadow diplomacy and NATO credibility crisis

Musk’s unauthorized July 2025 meeting with Hungarian PM V. Orbán to discuss “censorship-free internet partnerships” triggers a State Department crisis. Secretary of State M. Rubio privately warns Trump that Musk’s freelance diplomacy undermines U.S. credibility, particularly after Poland and the Baltic states postpone joint cybersecurity initiatives over fears of X platform manipulation. Tensions escalate when Musk tweets support for Dutch far-right leader G. Wilders’ call to exit NATO, forcing Defense Secretary L. Austin to issue a rare public rebuke.

PHASE 3: LATE 2025 - Economic contraction and democratic erosion

Recession dynamics and fiscal paralysis

U.S. Q3 2025 GDP contracts by 1.8%, driven by tariff-induced inflation (7.6% YoY) and federal workforce shortages delaying $120bn in infrastructure grants. The IRS -operating at 60% capacity after DOGE cuts- fails to process 23 million tax returns by October 2025, creating a liquidity crisis for small businesses dependent on refunds. Musk’s proposal to replace federal staff with AI-powered “automation pods” collapses after prototype failures at Social Security Administration offices erase 340,000 beneficiary records, including veterans’ disability claims. The Federal Reserve responds with an emergency 75-basis-point rate cut, but credit markets remain frozen as Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt over “governance risks”.

Tech industry defections and electoral mobilization

Silicon Valley’s political realignment accelerates in late 2025, with Meta and Google redirecting 78% of their PAC funds to Democratic candidates. Musk retaliates by throttling Democratic campaign ads on X under the guise of “algorithmic neutrality,” a tactic later ruled illegal by the Federal Election Commission. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Fremont plant workers unionize in December 2025 after Musk cut healthcare benefits to offset Stargate project losses, marking the first UAW victory at a major EV manufacturer. This labor shift empowers Democratic campaigns in tech-heavy districts, where candidates frame Musk’s policies as “corporate feudalism”.

PHASE 4: EARLY 2026 - Global crises and pre-Midterm escalation

U.S.-China tech decoupling and rare earth crisis

China’s January 2026 embargo on rare earth metals -retaliation for Trump’s semiconductor tariffs- halts EV production in Michigan and Tennessee, idling 45,000 workers. Musk’s secret negotiations with Beijing to exempt Tesla backfire when leaked documents reveal concessions allowing Chinese inspectors access to Texas-based battery plants. The Pentagon cancels $3.4bn in SpaceX Starshield contracts, shifting funds to Lockheed Martin over concerns about Musk’s “divided loyalties”.

Disinformation wars and electoral integrity threats

X platform’s election integrity protocols -under Musk’s direct control- enable a 412% surge in AI-generated deepfakes targeting Democratic candidates by February 2026. The Election Integrity Partnership documents 87 instances of X algorithmically boosting false claims about polling place closures in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Internal logs reveal Trump aides lobbying X engineers to suppress turnout warnings in Detroit and Philadelphia, while Musk publicly attributes  content   moderation decisions to “stochastic algorithms”. These developments erode public trust as a majority of voters in swing States report fearing election interference, per Pew Research tracking polls.

The 2026 Midterms: Realignment and reckoning

Silicon Valley’s $2.1bn midterm spending blitz -60% channeled through Democratic PACs like TechForward- registers 4.7 million new voters under 30, targeting college-educated suburbanites and unionized tech workers. Musk’s X platform suffers a 39% drop in daily active users after FEC sanctions for ad throttling, undermining GOP digital outreach.

Democrats flip more than 10 House seats and 3 Senate seats (AZ, WI, PA), with decisive wins in three key battlegrounds:

• California’s 17th District: Former Intel CEO P. Gelsinger (D) unseats Trump-endorsed Rep. A. Eshoo, leveraging Tesla unionization and Musk’s stalled Boring Company tunnels.

• Texas’s 32nd District: Rep. C. Allred (D) capitalizes on SpaceX layoffs and Starlink outages to flip the Dallas Tech Corridor, framing tariffs as “economic self-sabotage”.

• Arizona Senate: Ruben Gallego (D) secures the votes of Latinos by opposing Trump’s border surveillance drones, which face ACLU lawsuits over warrantless searches.

Suburban women and veterans emerge as pivotal blocs, rejecting Musk’s AI-driven VA cuts and EV price hikes from rare earth shortages. While rural areas in Iowa and Ohio show lingering MAGA loyalty, agricultural export losses from EU tariffs weaken GOP margins.

CONCLUSION - Institutional stress tests and unresolved contradictions

The fusion of Musk’s entrepreneurial disruptiveness with Trump’s transactional nationalism creates regulatory black holes -from AI governance vacuums to election security gaps- that adversaries exploit. While the 2026 midterms temporarily check these trends through tech-backed Democratic gains, underlying systemic issues remain unaddressed: federal capacity erosion, alliance reliability questions, and unchecked corporate sovereignty over digital infrastructure. The scenario’s trajectory suggests that without institutional safeguards against public-private power consolidation, the U.S. risks entering a new era of “venture governance,” where national strategy becomes subordinate to entrepreneurial whims.

L'Afrique, longtemps reléguée au second plan dans les arènes des négociations climatiques mondiales, s'affirme désormais comme une force diplomatique unie sur laquelle il faut compter. Le continent a progressivement imposé son agenda environnemental, particulièrement lors de l'enchaînement historique des récentes Conférences des Parties (COP) en 2024. Ce positionnement répond à une réalité criante : alors que l'Afrique émet moins de 4% des gaz à effet de serre mondiaux[1], elle subit des pertes économiques annuelles  de 5 à 15% de son PIB dues aux dérèglements climatiques[2], sans compter le coût humain des sécheresses, inondations et dégradations des terres qui frappent le continent.

DE LA MARGINALISATION A L'INFLUENCE - L'évolution de la présence africaine

 La transformation de la participation africaine aux négociations climatiques est spectaculaire. Les données révèlent une trajectoire sans équivoque : quasi invisible lors des premières conférences, la délégation africaine s'est considérablement renforcée à partir de 2009, pour connaître une croissance remarquable en 2015 et 2022 (Figure 1).

A la COP28 de Dubaï, le Nigeria a envoyé plus de 1400 participants[3], tandis que le Maroc, le Kenya, la Tanzanie, le Ghana et l'Ouganda figuraient parmi les pays comptant les plus importantes délégations mondiales[4].

Cette montée en puissance quantitative témoigne d'une prise de conscience collective et d'une volonté politique d'investir ces espaces de négociation cruciaux.

Figure 1 : Nombre de participants parmi les délégations aux COPs climat, par région, 1995-2022

LES STRATEGIES DIPLOMATIQUES AFRICAINES - L'union fait la force

Face à la complexité des négociations internationales, les pays africains ont développé des stratégies sophistiquées pour amplifier leur influence. Conscients de leur fragilité individuelle, ils privilégient les alliances stratégiques, notamment au sein du G77+Chine, où l'Afrique représente environ 40% des membres[5]. Cette coalition du Sud global a permis des avancées significatives, comme l'accord sur un fonds dédié aux pertes et dommages climatiques obtenu à la COP27 en 2022 – une revendication portée pendant près de trois décennies mais longtemps bloqué par les pays développés​[6].

En amont des COPs, les pays africains renforcent aussi leur unité. En septembre 2023, le premier Sommet africain sur le climat à Nairobi a marqué un tournant, rassemblant 19 dirigeants africains, le Secrétaire Général de l'ONU, la présidente de la Commission européenne et près de 20 000 délégués[7]. Ce forum a débouché sur la Déclaration de Nairobi, texte fondateur d'un front uni continental proposant des solutions audacieuses comme l'instauration d'une taxe carbone mondiale et la réforme des institutions financières internationales​[8].

À la COP28, l'Afrique a franchi une étape supplémentaire en présentant une "Position commune africaine sur le changement climatique"[9] articulée autour de six priorités : un financement climatique adéquat, un bilan mondial équitable, le renforcement de l'adaptation, l'opérationnalisation du Fonds des Pertes et Dommages, une transition énergétique juste, et la reconnaissance des "besoins et circonstances particulières" de l'Afrique. Cette cohésion s'est poursuivie à la COP29, où les ministres africains de l'Environnement se sont réunis à Bakou pour consolider une position unifiée pendant les négociations.

L’ART DES NEGOCIATIONS - Entre persuasion et pression calculée

Au sein des principales coalitions de négociation, les représentants africains exercent une influence croissante grâce à leur maîtrise technique des dossiers. Le négociateur de l’Eswatini s'est particulièrement distingué lors de la COP16 sur la désertification en portant la voix du groupe Afrique sur la question cruciale de la sécheresse, avec un argumentaire rigoureux et documenté qui a marqué les débats.

Lorsque les stratégies d’alliance et de persuasion ne suffisent pas, les négociateurs africains n'hésitent pas à employer des tactiques de blocage calculées. En 2022, lors de la COP15 sur la biodiversité à Montréal, les délégations africaines ont orchestré un retrait collectif en pleine négociation sur les financements, protestant contre le refus des pays donateurs d'envisager un nouveau fonds dédié. Cette manœuvre a porté ses fruits, débouchant sur un compromis significatif concernant le financement de la biodiversité[10]. Ces tactiques, utilisées avec parcimonie et discernement, constituent désormais un levier essentiel dans l'arsenal diplomatique africain pour équilibrer le rapport de force dans des forums internationaux où les décisions se prennent par consensus.

LE FINANCEMENT CLIMATIQUE - Le nerf de la guerre et priorité absolue

Le financement demeure l'enjeu central des négociations pour les pays africains. Le paradoxe est saisissant : alors que l'Afrique abrite neuf des dix pays les plus vulnérables aux changements climatiques, elle reçoit moins de 3% du financement climatique mondial[11].

Face à cette iniquité flagrante, les représentants africains haussent le ton. Kevin Kariuki, vice-président de la Banque africaine de développement, a plaidé en amont de la COP29 pour « passer de millions et de milliards à des milliers de milliards de dollars dont l'Afrique a pleinement besoin pour son action climatique »[12]. L'objectif affiché est d'atteindre 10% du financement climatique mondial d'ici 2030.

Cette focalisation sur le financement a culminé lors de cette COP29 à Bakou en 2024, surnommée la "COP du financement". Malgré des négociations tendues, un accord a été signé pour tripler le financement climatique aux pays en développement[13]. 

DES AVANCEES CONCRETES MALGRE DES OBSTACLES PERSISTANTS

La diplomatie climatique africaine a remporté plusieurs victoires significatives ces dernières années. La création du Fonds pour les pertes et dommages climatiques avec des contributions initiales dépassant 700 millions de dollars, constitue une avancée historique. Dès l’ouverture de la COP28 suivante, ce fonds est devenu opérationnel​[14].

L'adaptation aux impacts climatiques, longtemps reléguée au second plan des négociations internationales, a progressivement gagné en centralité grâce au plaidoyer africain. L'Accord de Paris de 2015 a ainsi consacré un objectif mondial d'adaptation, tandis que la COP26 de Glasgow en 2021 a acté le doublement des financements d'adaptation d'ici 2025– une priorité portée par la présidence africaine de la COP27​[15].

Malgré ces progrès, les pays africains se heurtent encore à d'importants obstacles systémiques. Plus de dix ans après l'engagement des pays développés de mobiliser 100 milliards de dollars annuels d'aide climatique d'ici 2020, ce montant n'a jamais été intégralement atteint, avec seulement 83,3 milliards en 2020, et majoritairement sous forme de prêts remboursables​[16]. Les engagements tels que le Plan de transition énergétique juste, annoncé lors de la COP26 en 2021 et promettant 8,5 milliards de dollars, n'ont pas été pleinement concrétisés[17].

Des divergences internes nuancent également la cohésion du bloc africain : les intérêts d’un petit État insulaire comme les Seychelles diffèrent de ceux d’un pays producteur de pétrole comme le Nigeria. Six pays africains font partie de l’AOSIS, prônant une action climatique maximale, tandis que sept États africains sont membres de l’OPEP, défendant la rente pétrolière. L’unité la plus manifeste se retrouve sans doute dans les négociations sur la désertification, une thématique où l'Afrique parle d'une seule voix depuis la création de la Convention en 1994, initiée sous l’impulsion des pays africains.

UNE VOIX QUI PORTE, DES ACTES QUI SUIVENT

Malgré ces défis, l'expérience acquise, la professionnalisation des négociateurs et la mobilisation de la société civile dessinent les contours d'une diplomatie climatique africaine de plus en plus influente.

En adoptant un ton diplomatique mais ferme, l'Afrique a définitivement quitté les marges des négociations climatiques pour s'imposer comme un acteur incontournable. Comme l'a souligné le président kényan William Ruto lors du Sommet de Nairobi, « l'Afrique n'est pas seulement un continent vulnérable réclamant de l'aide, mais un porteur de solutions pour une croissance verte mondiale »[18].

L'efficacité de cette diplomatie climatique africaine se mesurera désormais à l'aune des résultats concrets : l'accès effectif aux fonds promis, la réalisation des objectifs adoptés et le respect des engagements par les partenaires du Nord. En attendant, le message est clair : l'Afrique n'est plus disposée à subir passivement les conséquences d'une crise qu'elle n'a pas provoquée.

_________________________

Sources:

[1]https://www.iea.org/regions/africa/emissions

[2]https://www.afdb.org/fr/news-and-events/press-releases/lafrique-perd-chaque-annee-jusqua-15-de-son-pib-par-habitant-cause-du-changement-climatique-kevin-urama-economiste-en-chef-par-interim-de-la-banque-africaine-de-developpement-54661

[3]https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop28/

[4]https://www.africanews.com/2023/12/04/african-countries-defend-large-delegations-at-cop28//#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20UN's%20attendance,823%20and%20Kenya%20with%20765.

[5]https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/06/who-speaks-for-africa-at-cop-power-and-politics-at-the-un-climate-negotiations?lang=en

[6]https://reseauactionclimat.org/decryptage-de-la-cop-27-une-decision-historique-sur-les-pertes-et-dommages-mais-un-gros-point-noir-sur-les-energies-fossiles/#:~:text=Cette%20COP%20s%E2%80%99est%20d%C3%A9roul%C3%A9e%20en,plupart%20des%20pays%20en%20d%C3%A9veloppement

[7]https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/2023/10/10/a-la-une-d-objectif-afrique-l-africa-climate-summit-a-nairobi

[8]https://www.business-humanrights.org/es/%C3%BAltimas-noticias/au-kenya-le-premier-sommet-africain-sur-le-climat-adopte-la-d%C3%A9claration-de-nairobi/#:~:text=Leer%20m%C3%A1s

[9]https://www.uneca.org/fr/stories/les-six-principales-priorit%C3%A9s-de-l%E2%80%99afrique-%C3%A0-la-cop28

[10]https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/cop15-nature-summit-snag-money-matters-30-conservation-goal-2022-12-15/#:~:text=So%20far%2C%20they%20have%20had,summit%20to%20discuss%20new%20funds

[11]https://www.afdb.org/fr/news-and-events/press-releases/le-financement-de-la-lutte-contre-les-changements-climatiques-et-la-comptabilisation-du-capital-naturel-par-les-pays-africains-figurent-en-tete-de-lordre-du-jour-du-groupe-de-la-banque-africaine-de-developpement-la-cop-29

[12]https://www.afdb.org/fr/news-and-events/cop-29-des-dirigeants-africains-appellent-un-electrochoc-sur-le-financement-de-ladaptation-climatique-et-de-la-croissance-verte-en-afrique-78647#:~:text=Musalia%20Mudavadi%2C%20Premier%20secr%C3%A9taire%20du,besoin%20pour%20son%20action%20climatique.

[13]https://unfccc.int/fr/news/cop-29-la-conference-des-nations-unies-sur-le-climat-convient-de-tripler-le-financement-aux-pays-en

[14]unfccc.int

[15]reseauactionclimat.org

[16]https://reseauactionclimat.org/decryptage-de-la-cop-27-une-decision-historique-sur-les-pertes-et-dommages-mais-un-gros-point-noir-sur-les-energies-fossiles/#:~:text=route%20claire%20pour%20atteindre%20cet,la%20promesse%20serait%20enfin%20tenue

[17]https://www.un.org/africarenewal/fr/magazine/novembre-2024/cop29-la-strat%C3%A9gie-de-n%C3%A9gociation-de-lafrique-doit-tirer-les-le%C3%A7ons-du-pass%C3%A9

[18]https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/2023/10/10/a-la-une-d-objectif-afrique-l-africa-climate-summit-a-nairobi